President Donald Trump’s approval rating is stuck near the bottom of his second term.

But for Republicans trying to hold Congress in November, another number in the latest polling may be even more important: Democratic voters appear substantially more enthusiastic about the midterms.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted August 28–31 found that just 33% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, while 63% disapprove. Among registered voters, approval was 37% and disapproval 62%.

Low presidential approval is an obvious warning sign for the president’s party in a midterm election.

But approval alone does not determine who wins congressional seats.

People have to vote.

And with Election Day approaching, the emerging enthusiasm gap may give Democrats another advantage Republicans cannot easily dismiss.

Democrats appear more motivated to vote

The Ipsos polling data show a noticeable partisan difference in enthusiasm.

Among Democratic respondents, 40% said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the 2026 congressional elections, compared with 27% of Republicans. When “very” and “somewhat” enthusiastic voters are combined, Democrats led Republicans 57% to 49%.

Reuters, examining registered partisan voters in the same survey, reported an even wider very-enthusiastic split of 46% among Democrats versus 31% among Republicans.

That does not mean Democrats will automatically turn out at higher rates in November.

When Ipsos asked how certain people were that they would actually vote, the partisan difference was much smaller: 64% of Democrats said they were completely certain to vote, compared with 61% of Republicans.

That distinction matters.

Enthusiasm measures motivation. Certainty measures stated intention. Neither guarantees actual turnout.

But taken together, the numbers suggest Democrats currently have more emotional energy around the election without Republicans enjoying an obvious countervailing advantage in stated voting intention.

The generic ballot is also moving against Republicans

The same poll contains another warning sign.

Among registered voters asked which party’s congressional candidate they would support if the election were held today, 43% chose the Democrat and 38% chose the Republican.

Among independents and other non-major-party respondents, 27% selected the Democratic candidate and 15% the Republican, although a large share remained undecided or said they did not plan to vote.

A national generic ballot does not translate directly into House seats.

Congressional races are decided district by district, candidate quality matters, turnout differs geographically, and Republicans have benefited from changes to congressional maps in several states. Reuters reported earlier this year that redistricting could potentially give Republicans additional seats even as the broader political environment has become more difficult for the party.

Still, when low presidential approval, a Democratic generic-ballot advantage and stronger Democratic enthusiasm appear at the same time, the combination is more consequential than any one poll number by itself.

Why Trump’s approval matters even though he isn’t on the ballot

Trump will not be running for Congress in November.

But presidents inevitably become part of midterm elections because voters often use congressional races to express satisfaction or frustration with the administration in power.

That creates a problem for Republican candidates.

Trump remains enormously influential inside the Republican Party. His endorsements can matter in Republican primaries and his political operation can mobilize core supporters.

But the same association can become a liability among voters who are dissatisfied with his presidency.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s overall approval at 33% for the third consecutive survey.

For Republicans in competitive districts and states, the strategic challenge is therefore complicated: they need Trump-aligned voters to turn out without allowing the election to become solely a referendum on Trump.

Cost of living may be driving the problem

The most important reason for Republican concern may not be Trump’s personality or partisan polarization.

It is affordability.

In the latest Ipsos survey, 47% of registered voters said cost of living would be the single most important factor in deciding their midterm vote — far ahead of democratic values and norms at 26%, immigration at 12%, and crime at 4%.

Trump’s ratings on that issue are particularly weak.

Only 22% of adults approved of his handling of their cost of living, while 71% disapproved. On inflation and rising prices, approval was 21% and disapproval 72%. Even among Republicans, 40% disapproved of Trump’s handling of their cost of living and 43% disapproved of his handling of inflation.

That reinforces something we have already seen in the polling: the political danger for Republicans is not simply that Democrats dislike Trump.

It is that an issue important to persuadable and less-partisan voters is cutting against the party in power.

The Iran war adds another vulnerability

Foreign policy is also weighing on the administration.

The latest survey found only 27% approving of Trump’s handling of Iran, while 61% disapproved. His broader foreign-policy approval stood at 30%.

The Iran conflict has also become entangled with the cost-of-living argument because disruption in global energy markets has contributed to higher gasoline prices. Reuters reported in late August that Trump was meeting with refiners and fuel retailers as gasoline prices above $4 a gallon increased political pressure ahead of the midterms.

That creates an uncomfortable overlap for Republicans.

A foreign-policy problem can become an economic problem when voters encounter it at the gas pump.

And an economic problem can become a turnout problem if dissatisfied voters are more motivated than satisfied ones.

Republicans still have time to close the gap

None of this makes a Democratic victory inevitable.

There are still roughly two months before Election Day, and political conditions can change quickly.

Gasoline prices could fall. Inflation could ease. Economic sentiment could improve. Republicans could become more motivated as the election approaches.

Trump and the Republican Party are also preparing a major midterm convention in Dallas on September 9–10, an event Reuters reported is partly intended to energize Republican voters and reset the race.

That makes Republican enthusiasm one of the most useful numbers to watch in the weeks ahead.

If the gap narrows, the current polling could prove to have captured a temporary Democratic advantage.

If it persists or widens, the problem becomes much more serious.

The real consequence

Trump’s 33% approval rating will attract the headline.

But congressional control will ultimately be decided by voters who actually show up.

Right now, Democrats hold several overlapping advantages in the Reuters/Ipsos data: stronger enthusiasm, a national congressional-ballot edge, and a substantial advantage on an affordability issue that nearly half of registered voters describe as their top consideration.

Republicans still have structural advantages in individual races and time to change the political environment.

But the question is no longer simply whether voters approve of Trump.

It is whether dissatisfaction with his presidency is creating something more electorally dangerous:

a stronger reason for his opponents to vote than for his supporters to do the same.

And if that gap survives until November, it could matter far more than the president’s approval number alone.